Uso de métodos difusos para la gestión del mantenimiento de transformadores aéreos de distribución

Abstract

This work develops a maintenance management model for distribution transformers in power distribution companies, using Centrosur C.A. Electrical Company as a case study. The model is based on fuzzy logic and the concept of forgotten effects. The main objective is to identify and prioritize key factors that traditional methods often overlook when performing transformer maintenance. The study involves an expert analysis to characterize and assess the most frequent failures, considering the causal relationships between variables related to the transformer health index. Based on a review of the state of the art, the fuzzy logic method is employed, allowing for the classification of analysis variables, risk minimization, performance enhancement, and an extended transformer lifespan. The results indicate that the most influential variables in maintenance management exhibited incidence values ranging between 0.5 (moderate) and 0.6 (high). Furthermore, the study proposes a systematic framework that prioritizes maintenance actions, defining the optimal starting point and ensuring a more reliable and sustainable operation. This framework is grounded not only in expert knowledge but also in a mathematical model. Keywords: neglected effects, maintenance management, expert judgment, fuzzy logic, transformer