Análisis de las importaciones ecuatorianas: un enfoque de series temporales para el periodo dolarizado 2000-2020

Abstract

The study of imports within a country can be related to its growth and development in several ways, some of which have a particular transcendence given the situation. Therefore, this research aims to analyze import behavior in Ecuador during the dollarization, considering that imports are part of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product). The study is focused on demonstrating whether the import behavior is related to the GDP behavior. For this purpose, different theories were studied to justify the research; these theories define imports as the acquisition of raw materials, products, or goods that are not produced within a country and that arrive with a better production process, industrialization, or commercialization. In contrast, GDP is the total goods or services produced domestically. For data collection, macroeconomic information from the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE by its Spanish acronym) was used as a reference, with quarterly cutoff for the period 2000-2020. In the data analysis stage, an ARMA model for time series was applied, which made it possible to conclude, after processing the variables, that a change in imports is related to a change in GDP by 55%.