Impacto de la deuda pública externa en el crecimiento económico del Ecuador. Periodo 2000-2019

Abstract

Foreign debt is considered a significant source of revenue for developing countries. Ecuador has heavily relied throughout its history on this revenue to deal with fiscal deficits. The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of foreign debt on Ecuador's economic growth for the period 2000-2019. Quarterly data collected from the Central Bank of Ecuador have been used for its development. The variables used for this analysis are the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a rate of economic growth, private investment, external public debt, and imports. First, the variables' stability was tested using the Dickey-Fuller test, subsequently, using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. A unidirectional causal link was found between imports and real GDP, and a unidirectional causal link between private investment and imports; At the same time, the impact of external debt on economic growth is not statistically significant.