Los efectos del cese de la producción petrolera en el Bloque 43 ITT del Ecuador desde el punto de vista del derecho tributario

Abstract

This study analyzes the legal and tax implications arising from the definitive cessation of oil production in Block 43-ITT, in accordance with the results of the 2023 referendum. The main problem is based on the abrupt budget deficit caused by the loss of government surpluses generated by the operating public company and the elimination of taxable events related to taxes such as Value-Added Tax (VAT), Foreign Currency Outflow Tax (ISD, by its Spanish acronym), and the Income Tax paid by contractors. The government faces the challenge of implementing a democratic environmental mandate while ensuring macroeconomic sustainability without infringing fundamental rights. The main objective is to assess these consequences from a Tax Law perspective and explore the legal feasibility of compensatory mechanisms, such as environmental taxation or structural reforms. The methodology is based on normative analysis and a review of official macroeconomic projections, which estimate a loss of revenue of 13.800 million dollars and a total economic impact that, under a broader interpretation, reaches 16.470 million dollars. The results demonstrate that shifting this burden to taxpayers would undermine equity, leading to the conclusion that protecting nature must be reconciled with the principle of ability to pay.