Determinación de las tasas de crecimiento vehicular de la Provincia del Azuay para proyecciones de tráfico

Abstract

This research describes the problematics of accelerated vehicle fleet growth in the province of Azuay, focusing on the city of Cuenca and its impact on urban mobility planning. A quantitative analysis of vehicle growth behavior between 2010 and 2022 was conducted based on the compilation of historical vehicle registration and population data from official sources such as National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INEC, by its Spanish acronym), Municipal Public Company for Mobility, Transit, and Transportation (EMOV EP, by its Spanish acronym), Association of Automobile Companies of Ecuador (AEADE, by its Spanish acronym), and the Ministry of Transport and Public Works (MTOP, by its Spanish acronym). In Azuay, compound annual growth rates were calculated by vehicle type, while in Cuenca, rates were calculated for total vehicles, and vehicle fleet projections were developed until 2042 using statistical models and linear equations. The study identified factors influencing vehicle growth, including urbanization, fuel subsidies, economic growth, and migration. Likewise, the negative impacts of increased vehicle fleets were analyzed, such as traffic congestion, environmental pollution, infrastructure deterioration, and socioeconomic effects. The results show sustained growth in the vehicle fleet, with motorcycles being the segment with the greatest proportional increase, followed by SUVs and trucks. The projections anticipate future mobility scenarios and offer key inputs for formulating public policies for more sustainable and equitable mobility. Finally, they highlight the urgent need to strengthen road infrastructure, optimize public transportation, and promote clean transportation alternatives in the province.