Extensión Cañar - Ingeniería de Sistemas
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Examinando Extensión Cañar - Ingeniería de Sistemas por Asesores "Flores Urgilés, Cristina Mariuxi"
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- ÍtemAcceso AbiertoPronóstico de migración humana del Ecuador, utilizando modelos de series temporales(Universidad Católica de Cuenca campus Cañar, 2023) Andrade Guallpa, Cristian Andrés; Flores Urgilés, Cristina Mariuxi; 030279200-7The article presents a study to generate forecasts on human migration in Ecuador using time series techniques. The objectives set out were a) To forecast human migration in Ecuador using time series models, b) To conduct a state-of-the-art study and literature review on data mining and machine learning methodologies, c) To evaluate and compare different time series models using precision and performance measures, aiming to select the model that offers the best predictions for future human migration in Ecuador d) To forecast migration in Ecuador using time series models. Initially, the context of migration in Ecuador is presented, which has been affected in recent years by several factors such as earthquakes, changes in government, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The article then delves into theoretical concepts related to time series, components of a time series (trend, seasonality, cycles), and forecasting methods like ARIMA and regression models. The study applies the CRISP-DM methodology using migration data from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of Ecuador between 2019-2022. Two models were applied: linear regression and seasonal ARIMA. The results show that the linear regression model had a lower prediction error, so it was chosen as the definitive model. The article concludes that time series models are a valuable tool for making forecasts on social topics such as migration. Key words: migration, prognosis, CRISP-DM, ARIMA
- ÍtemAcceso AbiertoPropuesta de un plan estratégico de tecnologías de la información para la gestión de TI de la Emmaipc-ep del cantón Cañar(Universidad Católica de Cuenca campus Cañar, 2023) Mullo Guacho, Jessica Marcela; Flores Urgilés, Cristina Mariuxi; 0605734243Strategic information technology planning establishes action strategies to use technology as a competitive advantage in the marketplace. The proposed thesis project focuses on several crucial strategic objectives, such as modernization of technology infrastructure, cybersecurity and data protection, ongoing innovation, and digital transformation, to make a Empresa Mancomunada de Aseo Integral a technological entity at the forefront of innovation. Considering several technological methodologies used in the industry to analyze this project with the stakeholders of the EMMAIPC-EP (Municipal Public Company for the Integral Sanitation of the Cañari Town) company, it was decided to select the Information Technology Strategic Planning (PETI by its Spanish acronym) methodology and create the plan based on previous evaluations where the information technology (IT) area is prioritized. Seeking to maximize the technology’s benefits and improve the user experience while aligning the technology function with the organization’s strategy policies. Therefore, this technological proposal defines the essential services and applications for the company, as well as the skills and resources needed to foster behaviors that may be valuable in the future. In addition, it aims to achieve the implementation of asset management systems that optimize the maintenance of the public area of workers, as well as the network of a computer security team that monitors cyber threats, proposals for firewall systems to protect the company's network against external attacks and active participation in the industry with technological perspectives. Keywords: PETI, ITIL (Information Technology Infrastructure Library), IT.