“El caso de la CAN y los países ALC4 (1990-2023).”

Abstract

This study analyzes external macroeconomic vulnerability in the Andean Community (CAN, by its Spanish acronym) and the ALC4 group from 1990 to 2023 through the construction of an External Macroeconomic Vulnerability Index (EMVI). To this end, seven representative indicators of external exposure and capacity to absorb international shocks were selected, including determinants of debt, international reserves, and capital flows. Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), a static index was estimated for the entire period, and a dynamic index was calculated under an eight-year rolling window framework. The results show that three components explain 75% of the total variance, with external debt standing out as the main structural dimension of vulnerability. The comparison between both approaches reveals a persistent structural dimension and a temporal dimension associated with crisis episodes such as the 2008–2009 global financial crisis and the shock resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.