“Relación del consumo y la inversión en el crecimiento económico y el entorno empresarial en el Ecuador (2010-2024)”

Abstract

This article analyzes how consumption and investment influence the growth of Ecuador's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and business environment between 2010 and 2024, especially in the expansion of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), which represent 99% of the national business sector. The methodology applied is mixed, descriptive, explanatory, and documentary in scope, cross-sectional, and non-experimental in design. It contains secondary data from official sources of the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE by its Spanish acronym) and the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC by its Spanish acronym), analyzed using Pearson's coefficient. The results show that household consumption maintained a share of more than 61% of GDP during the period analyzed, becoming the main driver of Ecuadorian economic growth. Investment accounted for an average of 20% of GDP, with significant declines in 2016 and 2020 due to economic and health crises. Likewise, a positive correlation of 0.60 was observed between GDP growth and the business confidence index. MSMEs increased from 788,238 in 2012 to 1,168,688 in 2023, demonstrating their fundamental role in the national economy and their sensitivity to macroeconomic fluctuations. It is concluded that consumption is the most stable and decisive component of GDP, while investment is more volatile, directly affecting the business environment. Finally, there is a need for close coordination between consumption, investment, and strategic business planning; strengthening policies to encourage consumption and productive investment; and improving financing conditions for MSMEs.