“Influencia del comercio bilateral interindustrial entre Ecuador y la Unión Europea en la dependencia de commodities durante el período 2003-2023”

Abstract

This study analyzes the effect of the bilateral inter-industrial trade pattern between Ecuador and the European Union on commodity dependence during the period 2003–2023. The analysis draws on the main theories of international trade and development in order to evaluate the extent to which a specialization based on traditional comparative advantages conditions the possibilities for productive diversification of the Ecuadorian economy. From a methodological standpoint, a fixed-effects panel data econometric model is employed, and the Grubel–Lloyd index is used to characterize the nature of trade in the agricultural, mining, and manufacturing sectors. The results show that, despite economic shocks, which do not exhibit statistical significance, commodity dependence responds mainly to structural factors associated with bilateral trade. Therefore, this study offers empirical findings relevant to the discussion on trade and development, showing that trade liberalization, in the absence of structural changes in the productive base, tends to strengthen historical patterns of specialization that restrict technological progress and the diversification of the country’s exports.