Proyección de la demanda de los vehículos eléctricos en el Cantón Cuenca y su impacto a la red de distribución

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology for projecting the demand for electric vehicles in the city of Cuenca and evaluating their impact on the distribution network of the Regional Electric Company of the Southern Center (CENTROSUR, by its Spanish acronym). Demand estimation is carried out for the 2024–2034 period using the Bass model, which allows the simulation of technological growth and the adoption of electric vehicles in the urban environment. The projected vehicle distribution is allocated proportionally to the population of each parish, aiming to consistently reflect their territorial presence. The technical analysis focuses on feeder 0324, modeled using OpenDSS software, and considers four evaluation scenarios: the current state, projections for 2028 and 2033, and the system’s maximum load capacity. For each scenario, relevant electrical parameters—such as power and voltage profiles—are analyzed to identify potential operational constraints that may arise due to the increase in load. The results obtained allow for establishing critical load thresholds and provide technical criteria for more robust and forward-looking network planning in response to the advancement of electric mobility in Cuenca. This research strengthens the city's energy transition process, proposing solutions to guarantee the quality and continuity of the electric service.