Economia
URI permanente para esta comunidadhttps://dspace.ucacue.edu.ec/handle/ucacue/10723
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Examinando Economia por Asesores "Guzmán Espinoza , Wilson Alejandro"
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Ítem Acceso Abierto Análisis de riesgo de las acciones de la empresa HOLCIM S.A. en el mercado de valores en el periodo 2018-2023.(Universidad Católica de Cuenca, 2024) Orellana Simbaña , Jessica Adriana; Guzmán Espinoza , Wilson Alejandro; 0107283913This study examines the fluctuation in Holcim’s stock market value to develop an econometric model for observing and forecasting price variability. The research analyzes the company's performance based on daily prices from 2018 to 2023, reflecting declines due to financial health issues and external factors such as the pandemic. In addition, a forecast of the future value for the next 150 days is provided. The results show that Holcim's stock exhibit moderate volatility. Therefore, investors in Holcim should be prepared to assume a certain degree of risk due to the variability in stock prices. The AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) (25,1,6) model suggests a promising approach to forecasting actual prices. In contrast, the Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) (1,1) volatility model effectively incorporates past conditional variances and predicts an expected return of 0.0124% for July 11. Its impact could significantly increase if it remains constant and accumulates over time due to compound interest. Finally, the models are effective in modeling changes in volatility, especially if these changes are sudden. However, they do not adequately capture structural or level changes in the data, as the stock market presents several fundamental issues, such as speculative risk, market fluctuations, governmental changes, and global events.Ítem Acceso Abierto “Análisis econométrico de los cambios en el empleo entre sierra y costa de Ecuador para el periodo 2019 – 2023”(Universidad Católica de Cuenca. Carrera de Economía, 2025) Flores Lazo , David Ricardo; Guzmán Espinoza , Wilson Alejandro; 0106878143The labor market is essential to a nation's economic and social development, as it represents the labor force and determines employment and unemployment levels. This study aims to analyze regional differences in Ecuador's labor market during 2019-2023, emphasizing changes in labor income and formal employment. To this end, two econometric models were employed: a linear regression to examine regional differences in labor income and a Probit model to analyze the probabilities of access to formal employment across regions. In addition, descriptive results are presented on the evolution of average labor income and the formal employment rate for each area. Finally, the results indicate that the Coast has experienced the most significant reduction in labor income, with negative coefficients still present in 2023. Regarding formal employment, the Amazon and the Highlands were the most affected in 2022 and 2023.
