Análisis de los factores económicos que influyen en la morosidad de los créditos de consumo en la banca privada ecuatoriana, entre 2020 y 2023

Abstract

The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of economic factors on consumer loan delinquency in private banks in Ecuador between 2020 and 2023, given the high risk these institutions face in consumer lending due to customers’ inability to repay their debts. For this analysis, an explanatory methodology with a quantitative approach is used, supported by descriptive statistics, Pearson’s correlation coefficient, and a longitudinal panel data design for the specified period. The findings reveal that the unemployment rate has a moderate-to-strong negative relationship with delinquency; inflation shows a weak and statistically non-significant correlation; and the gross domestic product (GDP) shows a negative correlation with delinquency. Additionally, moderate interrelationships are identified among the macroeconomic variables: a negative relationship between inflation and unemployment, and a positive one between inflation and the GDP. These results support the initial hypothesis that economic factors have a significant influence on consumer loan delinquency rates.