Examinando por Autor "Macao Piña, Christian Andrés"
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- ÍtemAcceso AbiertoPrevisión espacio temporal de la demanda eléctrica en la Empresa Regional Centro Sur(Universidad Católica de Cuenca., 2023) Macao Piña, Christian Andrés; Icaza Alvarez, Daniel Orlando; 0105782023This degree work presents the development and application of a spatial and temporal electric demand projection model through the creation of an algorithm in Machine Learning (ML) to respond to the medium- and long-term planning problem of the electric distribution system of the Regional Electric Company (Centro Sur C.A. in Spanish.) This study will provide a positive benefit for the electric service distribution company in terms of planning and allocation of resources in the distribution area. This research is focused on the projection of the electric demand in small areas disaggregating the global projection of the Regional Electric Company (CENTROSUR) considering a study area that has eight substations (Electrical Substations), the simulation model will analyze the different types of consumers such as residential, commercial, and industrial. The model applied in this research is developed with convolutional neural networks (CNN) using Python programming language and considering input variables such as spatial factors, consumer growth projection, and electricity demand projection. A map of growth probabilities in the study area was created. Then, the mathematical model cellular automaton (CA) was used to assign new customers spatially, according to the global projection of each substation.